MAPFRE Highlights Insurance Sector Resilience Amid Tariffs
MAPFRE Economics, the research division of the Spanish insurance group MAPFRE, has released its latest Economic and Industry Outlook report, stating that the global insurance sector remains resilient despite U.S. tariff policies introduced under President Trump. While the report acknowledges a slight tempering of the previously optimistic forecast from early 2025, it reinforces that the sector is standing firm.
MAPFRE Forecasts Stable Growth for Global Insurance
According to the company, key drivers of insurance industry growth will continue to be global economic expansion and rising interest rates, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The report projects life insurance premiums to grow by 4.3% and non-life insurance by 3.9% globally in 2025. These figures suggest healthy earnings prospects for the sector.
MAPFRE Sees Investment Income Driving Profits
The company’s Economics also points out that elevated interest rates will significantly boost financial income, especially through insurer investment strategies and the performance of savings-linked life insurance products. This will continue to play a critical role in overall profitability.
MAPFRE Revises Global Economic Growth Forecast
The research team now predicts global GDP growth of 2.7% in 2025, slightly lower than initial projections, and 3% in 2026. Inflation forecasts have also been adjusted to 3.4% for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026—each revised down by one-tenth of a percentage point.
MAPFRE Expects Sharper Slowdown in the U.S.
The United States is projected to experience a more pronounced economic downturn due to heightened trade tensions and inflationary pressures. The company now forecasts U.S. growth to reach 1.9% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, compared to the earlier estimates of 2.5% and 2.0%. These headwinds could reduce the Federal Reserve’s ability to respond effectively.
MAPFRE Predicts Milder Impact Across Europe
In contrast, Europe is expected to undergo a more moderate economic slowdown, with relatively subdued inflation risks. This implies a less disruptive effect on the insurance sector in the Eurozone.
MAPFRE Outlook on Emerging Markets and Inflation
The company projects that emerging markets will grow at 3.3% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. Inflation in these regions is expected to reach 4.2% in the current year and fall slightly to 3.6% next year.
MAPFRE Analyzes Mixed Impact in Latin America
In Latin America, the company foresees mixed consequences from global trade tensions. While some U.S.-dependent economies like Mexico may face weaker external demand, they might also benefit from trade realignment and increased capital inflows.
MAPFRE Updates Asia-Pacific Projections
The Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, with inflation rates at 0.4% and 1.0% respectively. The company adjusted its growth outlook for China slightly downward, from 4.3% to 4% for 2025, while maintaining the 2026 projection at 4%. Inflation in China is forecast at 0.2% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026.
