Global Insured Catastrophe Losses May Reach $90 Billion in H1 2025

Global Insured Catastrophe Losses due to natural disasters in the first half of 2025 are expected to reach as much as $90 billion, according to investment bank Jefferies. If this projection holds, it will become the second-highest first-half total on record, more than doubling last year’s total of $58 billion and exceeding the five-year average of $55 billion.

U.S. Weather Events Amplify Global Insured Catastrophe Losses

The sharp rise in losses is largely driven by a series of high-impact natural disasters in the United States. Most notably, California’s wildfires in the first quarter and an unusually active season of severe convective storms (SCS) during Q2 significantly contributed to the total.

Jefferies estimates that Q2 2025 alone will account for $30 billion in insured catastrophe losses, roughly in line with the five-year second-quarter average. However, about 85% of these losses are concentrated in the U.S., underscoring the country’s ongoing exposure to extreme weather risks.

Supporting this outlook, the frequency of tornadoes, hailstorms, and strong wind events was slightly above last year and stood around 20% higher than the five-year average.

One of the most expensive single events occurred in mid-May, when a powerful outbreak of SCS swept across the Ohio River Valley, resulting in an estimated $5 billion in insured damages, particularly due to widespread hail and high winds.

Primary Carriers Absorb Most of the Global Insured Catastrophe Losses

Despite the magnitude of these disasters, reinsurers are expected to face limited exposure. Jefferies indicates that primary insurance companies will bear the brunt of the financial burden due to the localized nature and frequency-driven patterns of the storm-related losses.

According to Jefferies, “The characteristics of the Q2 events suggest reduced nat cat exposure to reinsurers,” adding that most affected areas are heavily underwritten by primary insurers, not structured through large-scale reinsurance agreements.

Europe Adds to Global Insured Catastrophe Losses with Multiple Storm Systems

Natural catastrophe losses outside the United States remain substantial. Jefferies estimates that international insured losses in Q2 2025 were approximately $3 billion, consistent with the five-year global average.

Europe was especially hard hit by back-to-back storm systems. In early May, SCS activity impacted Spain, France, and Southeast Europe, generating insured losses in the hundreds of millions.

The pattern continued into early and mid-June, with powerful storm systems sweeping across Western and Central Europe, later hitting Western France and Northern Italy. These events further elevated regional loss totals, with each storm cycle expected to cost insurers hundreds of millions.

Tropical Systems and Unique Events Boost Global Insured Catastrophe Losses

In late June, Hurricane Erick made landfall along Mexico’s Pacific coast. Although it was a notable event, Jefferies expects insured losses from Erick to be much lower than those from Hurricane Otis in 2023, which caused an estimated $2 billion in insured damages.

One of the more unusual contributors to global losses in H1 2025 was the collapse of the Blatten glacier in Switzerland on May 28, which triggered a massive landslide. The damage is projected to cost insurers around $390 million in claims, underscoring the growing diversity of climate-related risks.

Global Insured Catastrophe Losses Set 2025 on Track for a Historic Year

The scale of disaster-related insurance claims in the first half of 2025 puts the year on pace to be one of the most expensive in history for the global insurance and reinsurance sectors.

With an estimated $90 billion in insured catastrophe losses, 2025 is second only to 2011, when massive events such as the Japanese earthquake and tsunami inflicted unprecedented financial damage.

The concentration of high-loss U.S. events, combined with frequent storms across Europe and uncommon natural disasters like glacier collapses, highlights a more complex and dynamic risk landscape facing global insurers.

As the second half of 2025 begins, all eyes are on the Atlantic hurricane season, which has historically brought some of the costliest natural catastrophes. The evolving climate risks, coupled with growing urban exposure, mean that global insured catastrophe losses could rise even further before year-end.